Much ado about Near-Field

Act I, Scene I.

A Dashing Brit (DB) traveller in the Big Apple notices that the iconic New York yellow cab whisking him through the concrete canyons to his lodgings is fitted with a touch screen and a contactless card reader.

DB: “Can I pay by card?”

Taxi Driver: “You don’t have any cash, man?”

DB: “No, I just got here. You do take cards, right?”

Taxi Driver: “Yeah, but you know, they charge us like $5 to take your card…”

DB enters $5 tip on the touch screen, then, with a flourish, taps his iPhone fitted with a splendid MasterCard PayPass sticker against the reader. Nothing happens, until the transaction times out.

DB: “Can you do it again, thanks.”

Having asked the clearly exasperated driver to re-enter the transaction and trys both contactless Visa and contactless Amex cards. None of them work. In the DB sheepishly uses the magnetic stripe on his British Airways Amex cards and swipes his way to success. A receipt is printed, and DB goes on his way.

Act I, Scene II.

Broadway. It’s late, but the heat from the day’s sun is still leaking from the asphalt, bathing the pedestrians in an unwelcome June warmth. The street is a cacophony of voices, languages, dialects, creoles. In a few seconds, the sounds of conversation in German, Mandarin and Spanish drift by. A Dishevelled Bearded (DB) grey-haired sage is walking in the road because the sidewalk is full. He glances down a sidestreet and sees a garish sign, the gist of which is that Dunkin Donuts is open round the clock.

“What a country” he thinks to himself as he is drawn towards the light int he clutches of a tractor beam forged in primal fires from sugar and fat, “but I really do heart NY”.

He moves slowly, precisely to the racks of deep-fried delight on display. But he is momentarily distracted by what he thought was an advertising display but has now realised is an ATM. His chemically-dependent slavish devotion to the evil geniuses behind the brand goes to 11: they have their own-brand ATMs. The own-brand money cannot be far behind.

DB muttering: “What a country…”

He shakes his head and turns back to the massed ranks of super-dense calorie containers.

DB still muttering: “…what a country!”

IMG_0400


Act I: Scene III.

It’s late June in New York. The heat is oppressive, the air pregnant with rain, a thunderstorm must come soon. A Distressed Businessperson (DB) on his way to an appointment, staggers into a west-side neighbourhood coffee shop. He stands in line, feeling the uncomfortable sensation of sweat running from his receding hairline to his eyebrows. Even with his advanced years, he can hardly not notice the scantily-clad, petite twentysomething blone woman in front of him. She addresses the Indian coffee cup server in a charming local manner.

Petite Blonde: “Just a cawfee, plenty of room for milk”

Indian Server: “$2.50″

The petite blonde proffers a debit card that prominently display the brand of a well-known internationally-famous banking house.

Indian Server: “Sorry, cash only”

Petite Blonde: “Are you serious? You’re kidding right?”

Indian Server: “No cards. You can use the ATM”

He waves toward and ATM that sits, with big red lettering in a strangely old-fashioned typeface, next to the cream and sugar station.

Petite Blonde: “Fugget it…”

She turns to leave, then hesitates and turns back, starting to open her wallet (for our English readers: purse).

Petite Blonde: “No, wait… maybe I got it”

She rummages in the wallet and eventually uncovers a dollar bill and some change. She hands to the Indian server and takes her coffee, while DB begins to rummage in his backpack, certain that he remembers seeing a $5 in his Moleskine yesterday.


Act I, Scene IV.

A Dog-Tired Backpacker (DB) is slumped at his breakfast table in a downtown Manhattan hotel. Unable to sleep, he has been awake since the early hours. Unable to concentrate on his tasks at hand, he has been composing nonsensical observations about financial services of niche interest, intending to foist them on an uncaring universe via a web log. All around him are the men and women who are the beating hearts of commerce and trade. Not all of them are international: one on a nearby table is American and he is yelling into his iPad, having a Facetime video conference with a colleague. At breakfast. In a public place. DB is driven from his Raisin Bran by this performance and stomps across to the coffee station to grab some Joe to go. In his haste to get away from the blockhead banging on about business prospects for the next quarter, he fails to attach the lid to the coffee cup securely, with the natural consequence that it falls off, and he slops coffee on his chinos.

On his way back to the room to attempt an emergency clean-up on Aisle 1, he remembers that he saw a men’s clothing store a block away. He heads overt here and finds a pair of Dockers in the right colour (ie, any) and the right size (REDACTED). He pays with his Amex card, because his John Lewis MasterCard was cancelled following a suspicious transaction and the replacement hasn’t arrived.

Menswear Assistant: “Cash or card?”

DB: “Card.”

DB takes his Amex and swipes it through the terminal in front of him. He is then invited to sign the large, clear screen using a plastic stylus. He does so (signing it, as always, “Snoopy Dogg” as a fraud prevention mechanism — if a fraudster steals the card, then they would sign it DB, because that’s the name on the card, thus any forensic investigation would immediately flag the transaction as bogus).

Menswear Assistant: “Thank you sir, please call again.”

DB wanders into Starbucks next door and orders a medium coffee with an extra shot and an oatmeal raison cookie.

Cheery Barrista: “$4.85 please”

DB hands over pre-paid US dollar Travelex MasterCard, which the Cheery Barrista swipes in an instant and returns.

Cheery Barrista: “Do you want a receipt?”

DB: “No thanks.”

Cheery Barrista: “Have a great day.”

DB turns toward to counter where patrons queue to pick up their completed beverage orders. He stops, puzzled, lost in thought. He thinks to himself “Hhhmmm… there’s no way that contactless technology is going to make that transaction any faster, and customers don’t care about security, because it’s not their problem, so how is it going to catch on in the US?”

As the dark clouds of thunderstorms stack above the skyscrapers of Wall Street, DB ambles toward the Museum of American Finance, only to find that it doesn’t open on Mondays. Lost in tortured thought about the mobile wallet and the competitive strategies of his clients, he reaches for his iPod, turning the corner of Broad Street to the sounds of “Brainbox Pollution” by the world’s greatest ever popular beat combo, the mighty Hawkwind.

Exit, pursued by bronze bull.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Yet more about NFC and business models

Eric Schmidt’s very bullish comments about near-field communication (NFC) technology in the US retail market have got people talking about business models again.

Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, believes that a third of check-out terminals in retail stores and restaurants will be upgraded to allow wireless “tap and pay” from mobile phones within the next year.

[From Google’s Schmidt predicts widespread “tap and pay” within a year | FT Tech Hub | FTtechhub - Industry analysis – FT.com]

These follow a series of statements by Google executives that, whether they are true or not, seem to have legitimised the technology in the eyes of a broad range of businesses.

She added that there is a ton of activity around NFC in international markets, giving the example of a successful trial of the technology that Starbucks ran in London.

[From Google Commerce Chief: We’re Making A Huge Bet On NFC As A Company]

I’ve never heard of this Starbucks NFC trial, so if anyone can point me in the right direction I’d really like to read up on it. But that’s beside the point. The point is that lots of people are now taking NFC seriously in the retail space and the mobile operators are developing NFC strategies. But what business model will there be for them? And what options do they have?

The question will then be how operators manage to regain relevance for their role in NFC transactions (which will come later, if at all), when the first trillion NFC interactions will have bypassed them.

[From Dean Bubley's Disruptive Wireless: What will be the business model for free NFC-based interactions?]

You can see the problem that he is alluding to, but it may not be immediately obvious why it is such a problem specifically for operators. Look at the issue from a slightly different perspective, one that stems from security. I would argue that there are two different classes of application for NFC in mobile phones. These are, broadly speaking, “open” applications and “closed” applications. They are, broadly speaking, about interaction in the case of open applications and transaction in the case of closed applications. Creating such applications is, broadly speaking, easy to create in the case of open applications and difficult in the case of closed applications.

Why? Well, it’s because the closed applications need security and the open applications don’t. Open applications are things like games and business cards and “friending”, where consumers touch phones to something (which may be another phone) in order to get or exchange some information. These are what Dean means by “interactions”. Closed applications are things like payments and tickets, where real money is involved (other than the service providers own) and the applications must be what security professionals refer to as “tamper resistant”. They must also work, all the time and every time. These are what Dean means by “transactions”.

Working out how to do implement secure electronic transactions is (I’m happy to say, since it’s a big part of Consult Hyperion‘s business) difficult, complicated and interesting. It’s easy to picture how life might be with your credit card inside your mobile phone, but think what has to happen to realise that picture! How will the security keys necessary for the card application be transported across potentially insecure networks into the tamper-resistant chips (the “secure elements”, SEs) in handsets? How does the bank know that your credit card is going in to your phone and not a fraudsters? When you get a new phone, how does your card make its way from your old phone to the new one? How does the wallet application in the phone communicate with the card application in the secure element?

In the architecture developed by the transaction incumbents (by which I mean banks and telcos), the management of the closed applications is undertaken by something called a “trusted services manager”, or “TSM”, an entity that stis between the providers of closed services, such as banks and transit operators, and the mobile operators who connect to the SEs that they, in effect, own and rent out space on. This model may be disrupted, because it was founded on the assumption that the SE would be under the control of the MNO and that the TSM would have to cut a deal with the MNO to rent the SE space (what you’ll often here telco people refer to as the “apartment model”).

In the Google play, the TSM is operated by First Data and the SE is operated by Google (it’s in the Nexus handset, not on the SIM). The operator has no control over the SE and can extract no “rent” for its use. I notice that in the Nilson report (#972, page 7) it says that the Nexus S is the only smartphone in the US market with an SE not controlled by the mobile operators: it might have said that it’s the only smartphone in the US with an SE, full stop. The operators (in the form of Isis) are not yet in the marketplace. Why are Google being so active then? Well, on the Catalyst Code I read a while back.

Google has obviously made a decision that NFC is an opening into something more interesting and lucrative than transforming a phone into a payment card– advertising and marketing opportunities at the point of sale – the physical point of sale. And, it has done a deal with VeriFone that takes the economic sting away from the merchants who need to buy into their vision to make it work – and who have by and large turned their noses up at NFC up to this point. Layer on top of that their Google Checkout asset and their newly launched One-Pass wallet application and you have the makings of an interesting new payments player.

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

Karen is, as usual, spot on about this. But I’m not so sure about this…

What’s amazing is that Google was the first to connect all of these dots

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

This doesn’t seem amazing to me, because I’ve been involved in numerous attempts to develop mobile proximity propositions involving banks and operators and from these experiences have developed (I think) a reasonably accurate map. A month before the Google announcement, I wrote on Quora that “I’m sure [loyalty and rewards] will be Google’s strategy too. Payments are not an interesting enough application to persuade people to go out an get an NFC phone.”

So how come banks and operators didn’t connect the dots, then? Banks and operators have smart people in them, and some of them have smart consultants too. But it is very difficult to make institutional strategies for non-core businesses and have them translated into a practical tactics with appropriate priorities. If you were in a European mobile operator back in 2009 and you had an idea for using NFC to create a new business, where did you go with the idea? I went in to an Orange retail outlet: they are the first operator in the UK to sell a commercial NFC handset with an onboard payment application: not only did the shop not accept NFC payments but they didn’t sell any NFC tchotchkes, such as blank NFC tags. If you’re a smart kid and you get one of these phones, and you have an idea for using tags as tickets for a gig you and your mates are running… well, hard luck. This is problematic, because we need lots of people to be experimenting, developing and playing with the new interface to create the new, open applications.

In April, Nokia’s vice president for industry collaborations, Mark Selby, speaking at the WIMA NFC conference in Monaco, contended that NFC applications not securely stored on SIM cards, embedded chips or other secure elements will account for two-thirds of the revenue that NFC technology will generate through 2013.

[From Nokia Introduces Its Second NFC-enabled Smartphone | NFC Times New – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

I hope Mark won’t mind me mentioning that we discussed this over dinner a couple of weeks ago and, while I agreed with him about the market, I bored him at length with my moaning about the slow development of the ecosystem. Where are the Nokia NFC tags for kids to buy? Where are the NFC USB sticks to connect laptops and phones?

But, looking forward, there’s another issue here. This classification of open/interactive vs. closed/transactional NFC uses is too simplistic, because as the technology spreads in the mainstream, interactions will need to be secure too. When I tap my phone against an advert at the bus stop, I want to find out more about “Kung-Fu Panda 2″ and not get directed to a porn site, a reverse-charge premium rate phone call to Honduras or send a text message to someone who wants to sell my mobile number to commercial organisations. I want my phone to check the digital signature on the tag and make sure that it is valid, and that it is signed by an organisation recognised by UK phone operators, or banks, or the government, or whoever. But signing the tags (which is part of the NFC standards, but no-one uses at the moment) means that someone has to distribute keys, and certificates and all that stuff. None of this exists right now, but in the future it will have to.

So… Not only is there no ecosystem for transactions, there’s no ecosystem for interactions either. Now you can see why the mobile operators are going to have to work so hard to stay in the NFC loop. A couple of years ago they could have started to roll out the handsets for open, interactive purposes and started many communities off on experimenting with the new technology while they developed the necessary infrastructure for both secure transactions and secure interactions, but they didn’t because they couldn’t see a business case. What’s the business case for selling public key certificates so that advertisers can digitally sign tags using their internally-generated private keys?

It’s hard to work out a conventional business case around a business that simply doesn’t exist yet, and I understand that. But I think that even three or four years ago, the consumer response to the early pilots and trials was so positive that it was clear that the technology would make the mainstream. Now that Google’s activities have served, in an odd way, to legitimise both NFC technology and the business models around it, maybe the operators should adopt a more Google-like approach to business model: start building way more cool stuff, monetise what works and then be ruthless in killing off what doesn’t.

My employer, Consult Hyperion, has provided paid professional services to some of the organisations named here in connection with products and services discussed here, but the opinions in this post are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Why use contactless?

The results from the first couple of years of contactless payments use in the UK show that, as expected, contactless is being used as cash replacement for small transactions.

The average value of a contactless transaction is only £4.93.

[From Tap-and-go is on the move to a shop near you | Mail Online]

It’s not always used simply because of the convenience, as one commentator noted in the comments on this story:

I have swtiched to using the contactless payment method to purchase sandwiches at shops such as Pret A Manger and Eat mainly because I am fed up with them ofloading their fake pound coins on me in their change

[From Tap-and-go is on the move to a shop near you | Mail Online]

Bizarrely, I was thinking about this the other day. I parked in Derby, which is in the midlands and when I returned to the car the local council wanted to charge me £11.20. In some kind of hommage to Derby’s past, the machine didn’t take cards or mobile payments, so we were reduced to emptying out our pockets, rummaging in the glove compartment and searching the floor of the car for change. Fortunately, my fellows had plenty of pocket change. But when we started feeding it into the machine, four out of the ten £1 coins we had amassed were repeatedly rejected, presumably because they were fake. I’d never really thought that the avoidance of fake currency would be part of the retailer’s business case, but I need to revise my opinion!

But what is the business case? Is it just about payments? For some kinds of retailers, the convenience of contactless payments makes sense only when it is also part of some bigger model, generally involving value-added propositions such as loyalty. The was recognised by Bling Nation, when they decided to refocus on the loyalty side of things…

John Paul Coupa of Coupa Café has the system in all three of his northern California locations. “It gets used a lot,” says Coupa, “(even) more than American Express.” Coupa recently implemented the FanConnect system.

[From ContactlessNews | Contactless payment scheme enables loyalty via Facebook]

In Northern California, then, things look good. But on the other side of the country, on the apparently more conservative east cost, the results were quite different.

Other merchants have not enjoyed the same level of success. Charles Savas, president of Center Beverage in Stoneham, Mass., got rid of the system after just three months. “They were going to charge me $40 a month,” he says, “and I only had $35 in sales for the first three months.”

[From ContactlessNews | Contactless payment scheme enables loyalty via Facebook]

A mixed picture. But does any of this early experience matter? If contactless is important only as the rails for mobile to run on, then the early feedback from the contactless card deployments doesn’t really matter. It doesn’t tell us anything about the mobile future, does it?

These, and related topics, will be discussed at Contactless Cards and Mobile Payments in London on 20th and 21st June at the Kensington Hilton. I’m chairing the event on 21st and look forward to see you all there. And guess what? The utterly splendid people at SMi have given me a two-day delegate pass worth an astonishing ONE THOUSAND TWO HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE POUNDS to give away on this blog as a competition prize. So if you are going to be in London on those dates and you’d like to come along to learn more about the world of contactless, all you have to do is be the first person to respond to this post with the current maximum payment value for “no PIN” contactless payments in the UK.

In the traditional fashion, this competition is open to all except for employees of Consult Hyperion and members of my immediate family, is void where prohibited and has been designed to be carbon neutral. The prize must be claimed within three months. Oh, and no-one can win more than one of the Digital Money Blog prizes per calendar year.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Yet more about NFC and business models

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There are two different classes of application for NFC in mobile phones. These are, broadly speaking, “open” applications and “closed” applications. They are, broadly speaking, about interaction in the case of open applications and transaction in the case of closed applications. Creating such applications is, broadly speaking, easy to create in the case of open applications and difficult in the case of closed applications.

Why? Well, it’s because the closed applications need security and the open applications don’t. Open applications are things like games and business cards and “friending”, where consumers touch phones to something (which may be another phone) in order to get or exchange some information. Closed applications are things like payments and tickets, where real money is involved (other than the service providers own) and the applications must be what security professionals refer to as “tamper resistant”. They must also work, all the time and every time. Working out how to do this is (I’m happy to say, since it’s a big part of Consult Hyperion‘s business) difficult, complicated and interesting. It’s easy to picture how life might be with your credit card inside your mobile phone, but think what has to happen to realise that picture! How will the security keys necessary for the card application be transported across potentially insecure networks into the tamper-resistant chips (the “secure elements”, SEs) in handsets? How does the bank know that your credit card is going in to your phone and not a fraudsters? When you get a new phone, how does your card make its way from your old phone to the new one? How does the wallet application in the phone communicate with the card application in the secure element?

In the architecture developed by the transaction incumbents (by which I mean banks and telcos), the management of the closed applications is undertaken by something called a “trusted services manager”, or “TSM”, an entity that stis between the providers of closed services, such as banks and transit operators, and the mobile operators who connect to the SEs that they, in effect, own and rent out space on. This model may be disrupted, because it was founded on the assumption that the SE would be under the control of the MNO and that the TSM would have to cut a deal with the MNO to rent the SE space (what you’ll often here telco people refer to as the “apartment model”).

In the Google play, the TSM is operated by First Data and the SE is operated by Google (it’s in the Galaxy S2 handset, not on the SIM).

So, for example, on the Catalyst Code, I read a while back.

Google has obviously made a decision that NFC is an opening into something more interesting and lucrative than transforming a phone into a payment card– advertising and marketing opportunities at the point of sale – the physical point of sale. And, it has done a deal with VeriFone that takes the economic sting away from the merchants who need to buy into their vision to make it work – and who have by and large turned their noses up at NFC up to this point. Layer on top of that their Google Checkout asset and their newly launched One-Pass wallet application and you have the makings of an interesting new payments player.

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

Karen is, as usual, spot on about this. But I’m not so sure about this…

What’s amazing is that Google was the first to connect all of these dots

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

This doesn’t seem amazing to me, because I’ve been involved in numerous attempts to develop mobile proximity propositions involving banks and operators. A month before the Google announcement, I wrote on Quora that “I’m sure [loyalty and rewards] will be Google’s strategy too. Payments are not an interesting enough application to persuade people to go out an get an NFC phone.” Banks and operators have smart people them, and some of them have smart consultants too. But it is very difficult to make institutional strategies for non-core businesses and have them translated into a practical tactics with appropriate priorities. If you were in a European mobile operator back in 2009 and you had an idea for using NFC to create a new business, where did you go with the idea? I went in to an Orange retail outlet: they are the first operator in the UK to sell a commercial NFC handset with an onboard payment application: not only did the shop not accept NFC payments (come on guys – you have to eat your own dogfood, as our transatlantic cousins are wont to say) but they don’t sell (for example) NFC tags. If you’re a smart kid and you get one of these phones, and you have an idea for using tags as tickets to a gig you and your mates are running… well, hard luck.

My employer, Consult Hyperion, has provided paid professional services to organisations named here in connection with products and services mentioned here, but the opinions in this post are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Inception

At the end of March, we learned that there is no business case for moving to NFC at POS in the USA.

Representatives of three of the country’s largest banks, Bank of America, Citigroup and U.S. Bank, attended a meeting last month organized by the Merchant Advisory Group… to talk about the new opportunities that mobile technologies, such as NFC, will create for the payments industry.

“You know what they (banks) told us? There’s just not a business case right now,” Dodd Roberts, head of the merchant group, said last week

[From Big U.S. Banks Look for A Business Case for NFC | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

That’s a shame, because it’s a fun technology that consumers like. Never mind. Of course, not everyone thinks that banks can’t make a go of it, and going back a couple of years we can find some positive projections.

Celent estimates that a 30% cash displacement ratio, or an incremental US$151 per card account, per year is reasonable, with an average revenue increase of US$1.83 per debit card account per year.

[From The View from the Mobile NFC Finish Line: Bank Economics in a Mature Mobile NFC Payments World]

Anyway, a month after the US banks told the Merchant Advisory Group that there was no business case, we learned that…

France-based POS device manufacturer Ingenico has confirmed that it is working with Google on the development of NFC-based services for retailers

[From Confirmed: Google developing NFC solutions for retailers • NFC World]

Was this an “Inception“-style paradox? A fault line between two sets of dreams that don’t quite connect? A glitch in the matrix that could be eliminated if we all take the bank’s blue pill? Because now someone is offering red pills…

The first NFC service launched by Google for its Nexus S phone is an enhancement to its Google Places service. Customers tap the phone against NFC tags embedded in stickers or decals that merchants affix to their storefronts to access information about the local business, including phone numbers, hours of operation, payment types, reviews and recommendations.

[From Checking in with NFC–Some Social-Networking Start-ups to Use NFC | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

Aha! So now we can see how to resolve the paradox. There’s no business case if you only think about transaction revenues (the bank model) but there is a business case if you “ignore” payments and focus on value-added services that retailers will pay for (the Google model). This has got the mobile operators interested enough to start upping the orders.

Such Android handset makers as Samsung, HTC and likely LG and Motorola are preparing for NFC, based on keen interest or orders from mobile operators, including South Korean telcos, SK Telecom and KT; China Mobile; as well as American and European carriers, NFC Times has learned.

[From ‘Open’ Battles Break Out Among NFC Vendors Over Android | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

But is Google’s interest enough to create the contactless rails for these mobile devices to run on, as we keep talking about? Chris Skinner made a very accurate post about this recently.

And here’s the rub: we need more terminals. Maybe they could learn something from Zapa in Ireland, where AIB Merchant Services has worked closely with them to rollout terminals that can use the tags. Half of all AIB’s merchant terminals are now Zapa ready: that’s 40,000 of their 90,000 terminals, with over 1.5 million contactless transactions in the year to September 2010. Compare that with Barclaycard, which has rolled out just 42,500 merchant terminals to date and is processing just over a million transactions by November 2010, and you can see the challenging dimensions they face.

[From BAI | Banking Strategies | Distribution Channels | Mobile | Why Mobile is Critical to Banking]

A characteristically well-informed comment from Steve Mott delves further into resolving the paradox. Perhaps payments are losing their strategic appeal for banks because they are becoming commoditised, utility businesses that just won’t generate the cash that they did in the past.

Consultant Steve Mott, CEO of BetterBuyDesign, who also attended the Merchant Advisory Group meeting, told me the U.S. banks do see the advantages of mobile to increase transactions. But mobile confronts them with an unfamiliar payments landscape at the same time they are being squeezed by regulators with the Durbin amendment,

[From Big U.S. Banks Look for A Business Case for NFC | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

Banks aren’t stupid. They know that NFC is coming, that consumers and merchants like it, that it means disruption. But it is very difficult to change core businesses, especially at a time of great regulatory uncertainty. In the meantime, the non-payment use of NFC will lead it into the mass market. But will the new technology pull in the customers? Sam Shrauger, VP Global Product and Experience at PayPal, puts it succinctly:

People couldn’t care less which technology a hardware or software manufacturer would like to sell them. They couldn’t care less which technology merchants may or may not put in their stores. Ultimately, they just want something that makes their life better when it comes to buying and paying.

[From Why the Mobile Payment Debate Is Headed in the Wrong Direction [OPINION]]

Now, as it happens, I was chatting with Sam last month and I agree with him about many things, but I think that in this particular case he may be underestimating the impact of “tap and go” technology. The point is that tapping is so much simpler, so much quicker, so much more convenient for consumers that it will make a difference to them. People will start looking for the phones that you can tap together to become Facebook friends, or whatever, because that experience blows away bumping, or texting or QR codes or whatever.

This, I think, means risky time for bank payments. Once people are using their non-bank wallets on mobile phones to execute retail transactions, initially using bank-provided payment schemes, it will be a small step to get them to move to non-bank payment schemes inside those wallets. Banks need more active responses to the changing environment and I hope I won’t be offending anyone to say that I know from personal experience with recent projects that banks are losing opportunities right now because they are not able to deliver products in the timescales demanded by other industries.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Bar none

When I was interviewing Christian Lunden from Nordic Choice Hotels for a podcast about their NFC pilot (using mobile phones as room keys) he mentioned in passing that some bars in Sweden have reacted against the introduction of chip and PIN by refusing to accept cards and going back to cash. This is because with chip and PIN the bar staff have to hand a the POS device to the customer, the customer has to insert the card and then enter the PIN, and this all takes far too long. Under the old (ie, US) scheme, the customer would hand over their card to be swiped at POS and then the bar staff would hand back the card with the a receipt for signature. I don’t understand why this was quicker, except I suppose that the bar staff could start working on the next order while waiting for the signature.

The bar owners have now started installing ATM machines (the ATM operators pay rent to the bar owners) so that drinkers can get cash. In a way, you can see that this makes sense for the bar owners. Unfortunately it doesn’t make sense for society, but since the bar owners are allowed to externalise the costs of their payment preference, why would they do any different?

Sweden has far more cash-in-transit robberies than its neighbours and suggests an alignment of the private and social costs: the cost of armed robberies, [the deputy governor of the Bank of Sweden] said, should be accounted in the cost of cash. This means that far from being free at ATMs, cash in Sweden should be expensive. He is, of course, completely correct.

[From Digital Money: The Swedish experiment]

A clear case for contactless, you might think. And this reminded me of an experiment I conducted a few weeks ago in a bar! I was trying to show that paying by contactless and paying by cash take comparable time, so off I went…

Damn that Joe DiVanna!!

Anyway, I think that my point was just about made: using EMV contactless for low value transactions works for the tough case of the bar. The problem is that the POS hasn’t been configured to take advantage of contactless: I don’t think it would be that difficult to put a couple of contactless readers on the bar itself but leave the POS back behind the bar, so that customers could tap their cards on the reader without having the POS brought over to them.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Who’s square? Jesse is

Some people don’t really understand the big picture around innovation, and how it takes inventions and turns them into sustainable new value-adding processes. Here’s one example.

Last Friday, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) took to the floor of the House of Representatives to decry the iPad as a job killer, as people are using the device to read books rather than buy them from bookstores.

[From Lesson to Congress: iPad Doesn’t Kill Jobs, Government Does - Gary Shapiro - The Comeback: Innovation Economy - Forbes]

But wait a minute: surely books were destroying jobs in the scribe industry. Jesse’s job creation scheme ought to be banning books, not praising them. Anyway, many popular books are written by non-Americans — why should American’s hard earned dollars flow to J. K. Rowling’s UK bank account? Hold on though — scribes were destroying jobs in the storytelling industry. Jesse needs to attack the problem at source: we need to stop people from reading and writing. Unless we’re going to do that, we should instead welcome and encourage innovation because we need an economy that adds more value. I’m not smart enough to know what that means for individual companies, although I am lucky enough to have a job that means I can experience many different organisations approaches and learn from them.

In 1994, the dominant global provider of mobile handsets was Motorola: its shares were trading at an all-time high and it was seen as an outstanding innovator and even described by a senior consultant at A. T. Kearney as “the best-managed company in the world”

[From Why Nokia's Collapse Should Scare Apple - Patrick Barwise and Seán Meehan - The Conversation - Harvard Business Review]

That’s the thing about technology-based innovation: it doesn’t follow the smooth distribution of best practice that is the realm of management consultants. It didn’t matter if you were the best urine trampler in the land, when a German chemist synthesised urea you were on the scrapheap. It doesn’t matter how good your printing company is when e-book sales exceed printed book sales.

Motorola missed most of these market trends, was slow to invest in digital (it was a classic victim of the innovator’s dilemma),

[From Why Nokia's Collapse Should Scare Apple - Patrick Barwise and Seán Meehan - The Conversation - Harvard Business Review]

This “innovator’s dilemma” analysis, which says that it’s just too hard for companies to invest in their own disruptors, suggests that it may be difficult for the incumbents in the payments world to innovate in the right direction. The case study that everyone is focused on right now is mobile.

Bill Gajda, Visa’s head of mobile innovation, is confident that Visa and the other card networks, in conjunction with banks, will be at the center of mobile payments in the future.

[From Leading Mobile Payments | Visa’s Blog – Visa Viewpoints]

I understand where Bill is coming from, but have to admit that I can see other scenarios as well, where Visa interconnects non-bank, sector-specific, mobile-centric payment accounts rather than only bank accounts. It must be said though that Visa have made a number of substantial investments in the mobile payments space and have been actively developing products and services. Not all observers think that this strategy is optimal.

Visa for you to execute in this space, spin out Bill Gajda and team to build a new network. You certainly have the capital and intellectual horsepower to do it.. Don’t think of mobile as a service on VisaN

[From FinVentures]

In the medium term, the existing players (by which I mean banks, the international schemes and processors) will find it more and more difficult to compete with IP-based alternatives because their cost base is just too high. Therefore, it might make sense for a company like Visa to start building one of these, but use their experience to build a better one. Alternatively, they could look for someone else who is building one, and then invest in it. This is what they have done recently with Square (Visa invested an unspecified amount in Square in April 2011). Square is much in the news at the moment, but what is actually interesting about it? As I wrote before, it is not the stripe reader, it’s the niche…

So where is Square seeing the most traction? Without a doubt, small businesses, independent workers and merchants comprise most of Square’s rapidly growing user base.

[From Square Now Processing Millions Of Dollars In Mobile Transactions Every Week | TechGoo]

In a way, this real-world PSP is a small but interesting niche play in a large acquiring market, and as we’ve advised our clients for many years that the mobile-phone-as-POS meme will be more revolutionary than the mobile-phone-as-card meme, it’s an existence proof of new opportunity.

While merchants have to qualify for the app, Square’s qualification rules are more relaxed than those of standard credit card processors.

[From Square Now Processing Millions Of Dollars In Mobile Transactions Every Week | TechGoo]

Never in a million years would I consider signing up as a merchant with my bank. Yet I went into an Apple Store in the US last time I was there and bought a Square (actually, we bought eight of them to play with). It took a couple of minutes to sign up on the web and I accepted my first payment (in Stuart Fiske’s iPad) a minute later!

IMG_0312

Pretty cool, although naturally I was outraged when I got off the plane in the UK and discovered that my lovely Square only works in the US. Anyway, Square were making me think about innovation again yesterday. They just announced their wallet product, Card Case. Once you’ve paid with your card at a retailer once, Square’s server stores the card details, so from then on the merchant has only to identify you. They can even do this without you having a card or phone, because they can look up your picture (although I have good reasons for thinking that this won’t scale).

The obvious idea is to make payments “frictionless” — easier and faster for the user and merchant. (Assuming that the app is fast enough that it is actually more convenient to pay this way than just to have your card swiped. Wireless data networks aren’t always reliable, etc.)

[From Jack Dorsey's Square Starts Its Bid To Kill The Credit Card]

Indeed, they’re not. But imagine what this will look like with NFC in place: you have an iPhone, the merchant has an iPad, you place your iPhone on the iPad, they beep, done. And it’s a card present transaction. Now, we all know that Square Card Case isn’t the only wallet game in town, because anyone with any sense is already developing a wallet proposition since that’s what the merchants want. Right now we are helping clients in the financial sector and the telecommunications sector with ideas in this space. Visa, being smart, are of course already in the game.

Fourteen US and Canadian banks have signed up for the launch later this year of a multi-platform digital wallet that can be used for e-commerce, m-commerce and mobile contactless transactions and includes mobile payment, NFC and coupon capabilities.

[From Visa unveils mobile wallet plans • NFC World]

But now continue the Square-related thought experiment. Suppose that Square are successful at signing up lots of people, so that people don’t want an AT&T wallet or a Citi wallet or a Visa wallet? If all of the transactions are now between the secure element in a mobile phone, via Card Case, to the secure element in another phone, via the Square app, then aren’t Square at some point going to get rid of intermediaries and just move the money from one bank account to another, in a retailer-centric decoupled debit proposition (which won’t be called debit, because of Durbin) that is proactively marketed by the retailers? That really would be disruptive.

just as the iTunes store completely upended the sale and distribution of digital media, Square just might upend the entire real-world payments industry–whether it meant to or not.

[From How Jack Dorsey's Square Is Accidentally Disrupting The Entire Payments Industry | Fast Company]

So, in response to the e-mails I’ve had over the last couple of days, let me say that the Square trajectory confirms the strategic advice that we gave our clients some years ago (which is great!) and that is it not a “rival” to NFC but an exploiter of it. Square might be a niche in the payments business, but it shows a really interesting innovation path that sees payment cards going the way of books, and probably without Jesse Jackson Jr. to plead their case. That doesn’t mean that Square will succeed, but if they don’t, them someone else following that same path will.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Day zero

Today is rather an interesting day in our tiny corner of the digital money universe. Today, the first NFC mobile phone with a contactless EMV application on the SIM goes on sale in the UK. It’s the Samsung Tocco Quick Tap, a version of the best-selling Samsung Tacco Lite with NFC, a product developed by Orange and Barclaycard.

Before I go any further let me make an explicit declaration of interest. Consult Hyperion has provided paid professional services to companies mentioned in this post in connection with the development of the products and services discussed in this post. As you may well remember…

…the public launch of a product that Consult Hyperion has been working on for some time for Barclays: Mobile operator Orange UK and credit card company Barclaycard have announced a long-term strategic partnership to develop m-payments technology including mobile wallet handsets.

[From Digital Money: Some real mobile, nfc and payment stuff in the UK]

Back to the story. Today, (well, yesterday, actually) I used one of these phones to buy a cup of coffee in Eat. And it worked. Perfectly. You might not think that’s amazing, but I do, because I know how much work has gone in to implementing a standard contactless EMV application in a standard mobile handset with a standard SIM for use in a standard terminal on a standard network. And it’s for use by normal people, not geeks like me.

The phone has a J2ME “Orange Wallet” that is connected via JSR177 to a Barclaycard MasterCard pre-paid EMV card application on the SIM. The application uses SWP to access the NFC interface. You can either connect this prepaid card to one of your existing Barclaycards or an Orange Credit Card that you apply for on the spot. There’s no “untethered” version that you could not link to an existing card but simply top-up online or in store. It works as you would imagine: for payments under £15 you just tap and go. The wallet contains the basic services you would expect: you can look at transactions, top up the card (I have my phone linked to my Barclaycard OnePulse with the built-in Oyster card) in a simple one-button plus PIN action

MMP_6301 logoNO EAT_pay_scr

Though I say so myself (as a big fan of stickers!!) the integration is nice. The phone implements the usual NFC tag reading, so you can tap things and have URLs or phone numbers pushed on to the phone (the phone comes with a bunch of tags for you to try it out on) and I’m sure that people will find fun things to do with these. I suppose like a lot of people I’d rather have my Orange Wallet running on my iPhone, but this is a great first step and, most importantly, it actually works, it’s not just some Powerpoint at a conference. It will be spreading to smartphones soon and the knowledge and experience gained by Orange and Barclaycard ought to stand them in good stead.

Last week Google confirmed that Android 2.3 will support Near Field Communication, as will Nokia and RIM smartphones, starting next year. And judging from Apple’s recent hiring of an NFC expert , and patent filings for a probably-NFC-powered iTravel app, the iPhone 5 will boast NFC too.

[From I Have Seen The Future, And It Looks A Lot Like Bump (Without The Bump)]

When I took the phone home last night and showed it to a statistically-invalid sample group of four teenagers, I was quite surprised as to how much they liked it. They were familiar with the handset and they like prepaid instruments and all wanted to try it out.

According to the recently released results of a survey from MasterCard; it looks like the public, especially the younger generation, are willing to embrace NFC if it ever becomes the standard method of payment in the future… From their findings, 63% of the US population aged 18-34 would be at ease with using mobile phones to make payments, while in the 35 or older age group, only 37% are comfortable with the idea.

[From MasterCard says NFC will be embraced by the younger generation in the US | Ubergizmo]

All in all I had rather an exciting day of contactless activity, because I popped into Tesco Express to buy a cold drink and noticed that they had installed contactless terminals. But more importantly, they’ve installed them properly. What I mean by this is that when you buy something, the checkout operators scans it and then contactless terminal lights up automatically. You tap and go. Or you tap and wait for a receipt to print out, and go. I was so shocked to see contactless payments implemented so well that I made a video:

Put these two things together: contactless rails and the mobile carriage and you finally have a genuinely new and attractive customer experience. No-one is mad enough to believe that people are so wild about payments that they will buy these phones just because of the on-board Barclays MasterCard (the mass market needs a portfolio of interactive services), but it’s a super first step. Today was a good day and naturally I’d like to share the excitement. I happen to have on my desk a spare pay-as-you-go Samsung Tocco Quick Tap, so if you’d like to dip your toe into the ocean of future payments, all you have to is be the first person to respond to this post telling me what the acronym SWP — used above — stands for. (Hint: it’s not the Socialist Workers Party).

In the traditional fashion, this competition is open to all except for employees of Consult Hyperion and members of my immediate family, is void where prohibited and has a new and improved formula. The prize must be claimed within three months. Oh, and no-one can win more than one of the Digital Money Blog prizes per calendar year.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

I see your 14443 and raise you 18092

A couple of people asked yesterday about the comments from Google concerning “card emulation” in Android phones. The twitterverse had noticed these remarks from Nick Pelly, the Android lead for NFC, concerning the lack of API support for NFC card emulation.

The problem is that the hardware out there today, you know, if you buy an NFC controller, it typically is only going to be able to emulate one of those RF-level technologies. So as an application developer, you don’t know which — when it’s getting deployed to a phone, which one is on the phone. So I guess until we see the industry standardize around maybe one RF-level technology or until we see NFC controllers able to support multiple of those

[From Google raises concerns over the viability of NFC card emulation mode for mobile payments • NFC World]

At first I just thought… wow, that’s smart. If Android phones won’t allow ISO 14443 card emulation (which is part of the NFC standard) then that means that Visa and MasterCard won’t be able to use them for payments, thus locking them out of the POS terminals that Google is developing for retailers. As I thought about it, however, and actually read what Nick had said, I realised that I couldn’t understand his comments, since phones are perfectly capable of dispatching to different applications depending on which card they read, so I thought I’d go and ask a couple of the world’s leading experts on implementing secure NFC applications in mobile phones. Fortunately Stuart Fiske and Neil Livingston both work for Consult Hyperion, so it was easy to find them. They told me…

We know that NXP and Inside Secure NFC controller devices support A, B, B’ and Mifare, all on the same chipset. GP provides mechanisms to manage protocol conflicts, etc., when multiple applets relying on incompatible protocols are trying to be active on the interface at the same time.

I thought this must be true, since I had in my office a Nokia handset with NFC that supports both contactless EMV transactions and contactless Oyster (ie, MiFare) transactions and it worked perfectly. I read a little further, and once again became confused. Due to my lack of experience, I was unable to determine what this means:

Typically, the hardware is set up to do card emulation through the secure element. Right now, we don’t have any APIs to talk to the secure element. And we think that we probably won’t be getting APIs to do that anytime in the near future in the SDK.

There are a bunch of different reasons. Again, the secure element is a very limited resource. It can’t hold a large amount of data in there. And if we open it up to any third-party application, there’s going to be a huge resource contention over the secure element.

Additionally, to talk to the secure elements, even from applications on the phone, you need to authenticate yourself properly.

And if you improperly authenticate yourself a certain number of times, there are secure elements out there that will physically destroy themselves and can never be recovered. So that’s something that we really think would be a bad experience for users

[From Google raises concerns over the viability of NFC card emulation mode for mobile payments • NFC World]

I have absolutely no idea what he’s talking about. I have never heard of a handset secure element (SE) that will physically destroy itself if authentication fails. I’ve checked the SmartMX data sheet this morning and I can’t see any such logic.

Screen shot 2011-05-12 at 11.03.45.png

If I put the wrong PIN into an EMV application in the secure element three times, it will lock and then require an over-the-air PIN unlock from the application issuer, but that’s a good thing. It’s certainly true that there’s a problem with secure applications controlling the screen and keyboard during authentication, but that’s because the Nexus doesn’t have any form of trusted execution mode and this is a well-known and well-understood (at least it’s well-known and well-understood by Consult Hyperion) constraint that feeds into the kind of risk analysis that we do for organisations who are thinking about developing transactional applications. The authentication itself is done within the SE, naturally, but you may have a virus that’s capturing the PIN, for example.

Meanwhile, I was thinking about the SE more. If I buy a Nexus S, how would an application provider request a Security Domain (SD) from Google? How would it be provisioned? Is Google building a Trusted Service Manager (TSM) to sell such a service? I haven’t got a clue. The guys told me (these are edited highlights, by the way)…

In J2ME, it’s typically the SE issuer (ie, Google, in this instance) that decides who can access the SE from apps in the phone, and sets up the access conditions on the SE to manage this (the ACF file). Essentially, what we need the Android stack to do is deliver what J2ME (and it’s JSRs) have been doing for several years now. That is, include APIs that provide the app with a mechanism to access an applet in the SE, and for Android to interact with the SE to manage access condition verification. You can’t block the SE if you can’t access it!…

…These comments from Google make it sound like Google won’t be doing anything with card emulation any time soon. If that’s the case, then what’s with all these stories about Google trialling contactless card payments in SF with MasterCard and Citibank, uing Verifone and Ingenico POS terminals? These POS terminals implement 14443 to read contactless cards, and I doubt that Google are going to develop custom terminals that implement P2P ISO 18000 instead. But who knows – it would be cool if they did…

…Perhaps the Android stack doesn’t need to implement card emulation mode if the underlying hardware implements it, i.e. if the NFC controller and SE together support 14443 and card emulation mode, then they can talk to the reader via the antenna independent of the Android stack. The stack needs to provide an access API to allow phone apps to access applets over the contact interface (if there is one, e.g. SIM), or the wired interface for embedded, or via the SD interface….

…So perhaps there is no need for a card emulation stack in Android after all? But we still need ot be able to switch the PN544 into card emulation mode and an SE access API supporting a decent access control mechanism…

That’s the actual problem, then. Developers can get to the SE interface but they can’t do anything with it (eg, load a payment card into it).

As of the 2.3.3 release of Gingerbread the Secure Element functionality has been enabled (but the API Hidden). You can confirm that there is a Secure Element (SmartMX) in the Nexus S just by looking at the debug log using adb logcat and switching on NFC via settings… That said I’m assuming that the keys etc are controlled by Google so actually doing anything with the embedded SE will be difficult/impossible at the moment.

[From Secure Element - SmartMX - seek-for-android | Google Groups]

What has happened is that Google used an NXP NFC stack when building the Android operating system image for the Nexus S, but switched off the card emulation using compiler switches. (There’s nothing to stop you, by the way, from recompiling the stack with those switches set to allow card emulation.) My interim conclusion is, then, that I have no idea what is going on. I don’t understand what Google mean and I don’t see how they can stop anyone from accessing secure elements. Sure, they can stop you for doing anything with the embedded SE (theirs) by not giving out any keys, but if there’s a UICC SE (from the operator) you can access that and if there’s an external SE (eg, a DeviceFidelity SD card) you can access that. If there’s no Google Android API elements for any of these, someone else can simply add their own.

After all, Google ordered the Nexus S with embedded secure chips, the PN65 from NXP Semiconductors, which can store applications. The NFC controllers in the phones also support applications for card emulation on SIM cards.

[From Card Emulation Expected Soon Despite Doubts from Google Engineers | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.]

Indeed. So why the fuss? What does it matter whether Google want to provide card emulation APIs or not? The things is that Google’s opinions about NFC have taken on more and more significance recently as it has become clear that whatever mobile operators and banks may think about NFC, Google thinks that it is important and will drive it into the marketplace.

Google has obviously made a decision that NFC is an opening into something more interesting and lucrative than transforming a phone into a payment card– advertising and marketing opportunities at the point of sale – the physical point of sale. And, it has done a deal with VeriFone that takes the economic sting away from the merchants who need to buy into their vision to make it work – and who have by and large turned their noses up at NFC up to this point. Layer on top of that their Google Checkout asset and their newly launched One-Pass wallet application and you have the makings of an interesting new payments player.

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

Karen is, as usual, spot on with this analysis. But I’m not so sure about this…

What’s amazing is that Google was the first to connect all of these dots

[From Google Takes on NFC, Will They Crack the Code? at The Catalyst Code]

This doesn’t seem amazing to me, because I’ve been involved in numerous attempts to develop mobile proximity payments for banks and operators. A month before the Google announcement, I wrote on Quora that “I’m sure [loyalty and rewards] will be Google’s strategy too. Payments are not an interesting enough application to persuade people to go out an get an NFC phone.” Years ago, I made a presentation (I think at NFC World but I can’t find it!) in which I said that no consumers will go into retail outlets and buy an NFC phone because of payments. They will buy the NFC phone so that they can read tags, swap Facebook profiles or (now, it seems) play proximity Angry Birds. But once they have that handset, then we need to make it easy and attractive for them to use it for payments.

Incidentally, Dean Bubley, who is in my opinion one of the very best analysts out there, called these non-payment applications “valueless” in a twitter exchange. He’s referring to things like “0-click” checkins and similar.

Starting tomorrow, just tap your NFC-enabled phone (most newer Android devices have it) against the poster, it’ll check you in with foursquare

[From Experimenting with NFC check-ins for Google I/O | Foursquare Blog]

I’m convinced that valueless is the wrong word. If Google (or Apple) or whoever track where you are via mobile location and then send you special offers, it’s creepy. But if you reach out tap when you enter the shop, or restaurant, or hotel, or office, that’s what advertising folk label “a call to action” that gives them permission to send you things, to steer you, to deliver added value. That’s what retailers will pay for — they’ll get the payments part for free — and that’s why the ecosystem will deliver real value.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.

Some observations on Japan

Someone interrupted one of my rants against cash the other day by pointing out that in the last resort, cash is the only payment mechanism that society can depend on. Their trump card was reference to the aftermath of the recent Japanese cataclysm, where following a magnitude 9 earthquake and a tsunami, the nuclear reactors didn’t melt down but the payment system did.

I think this is wrong lesson to draw from it. Yes, there were some temporary problems with the card networks because of the disruption, but it’s important to note that this did not impact all cards: Japan has quite a rich retail payment landscape, as shown in this diagram (which I drew a couple of years ago, so it’s a bit dated, but you get the point).

Japan Landscape

I saw Nobuhiko Sugiura, Associate Dean of Chuo University Business School, give a good overview of the current situation at last year’s E-Money, Cards and Payments conference in Moscow. He said that e-money usage in Japan is growing rapidly but still a small fraction of total consumer spending (¥1 trillion out of a total of ¥300 trillion, a 300% increase in the last three years). A third of the population use e-money and half of them (ie, one sixth of the population) use it in their phones. It’s a competitive market, centred on non-banks because the Japanese banks have no real interest in handling small payments because or their cost base. The non-banks, as I’ve often noted on this blog, have different business models, not based on transaction fees. The railways, for example, don’t expect to earn anything from their e-money system, it’s about reducing their costs. In comparison, convenience stores want to issue e-money to reduce their cash float. The bottom line is that the of cash at POS in Japan is “already falling” because of e-money.

After the earthquake and tsunami, the offline electronic money systems (such as Edy and nanoco) carried on working so long as there was power and the backup battery systems or generators were working, so you could still pop round to 7-Eleven and buy your staples. In fact, it was people who kept their money in cash who suffered greatly.

In Japan, lots of people — especially older people — keep their life savings in cash in their homes. (The country’s banks pay very low interest rates, so the incentive to deposit that money into bank accounts is lower than in other countries.) This is all well and good, until a tsunami destroys your home and washes your money out to sea.

[From Schneier on Security: Unanticipated Security Risk of Keeping Your Money in a Home Safe]

That’s not to say that people didn’t want cash after the event.

The tragedy playing out in Japan this past week highlighted that in times of crisis, there’s nothing like cash in hand as the universal method of payment. By all accounts the banking system in Japan survived and is functioning well after the earthquake and tsunami – such is the level of disaster preparedness.  But Mizuho, Japan’s second largest bank, reported outages in its payments and ATM networks – coincidentally as demand for cash surged.

[From The end of cash for payments? Not so fast! - Microsoft Perspectives on Payments and Core Banking in Financial Services - Site Home - MSDN Blogs]

So they wanted cash, but did they need it? In this kind of catastrophe, where the online POS network goes down but the ATM network stays up and the ATMs remain stocked with notes, you could see people going and withdrawing cash. But suppose there are no ATMs?

Imagine that there was a magnitude 9 earthquake and a tsunami in Woking (unlikely – our last natural disaster was an ice age in 18,000 BCE) and when I go round to Waitrose to buy some bottled water and rice my John Lewis MasterCard proves useless because the acquiring network is down and the ATM proves useless because the ATM has no power. The store manager at Waitrose can leave the food to rot on the shelves or he can accept a signed IOU. He could accept no sale because of flaws in the electronic payments or he could develop a rational fall-back strategy. We discussed this a couple of years ago, with reference to the famous case study of the Irish bank strike.

The owners of shops and pubs knew their customers very well and so were perfectly capable of deciding whether to accept cheques (or just IOUs) from those customers. And since the customers also knew each other very well, they too could make sensible decisions about which paper to accept.

[From Digital Money: Payments without banks]

If I was the manager of Waitrose after the Woking earthquake, then I would simply accept payment by writing down card numbers, or photocopying driving licences, or taking pictures of customers, or whatever. The core of the issue is identification and trust, not the payment instrument. As many media commentators noted, society in Japan did not collapse. My conclusion: natural disasters are not a convincing argument for cash.

IMG_0299

By the way, I case anyone was wondering about the origami cranes that I was giving out in Chicago this morning… My wife is a teaching assistant in a primary school in Surrey. The seven year old brother of one of the boys who was in her class (they boys have a Japanese mother) has been spending two hours every day for the last month making these (they are a symbol of peace in Japan) to raise money for the British Red Cross appeal for Japanese tsunami victims. Consult Hyperion have purchased a hundred of these beautiful and special cranes, so if you come to our office anytime over the next couple of weeks, please feel free to pick one up with our compliments.

These opinions are my own (I think) and presented solely in my capacity as an interested member of the general public [posted with ecto]

These are the personal opinions of Consult Hyperion and its guests and should not be misunderstood as representing the opinion of its clients or suppliers. To discuss how any of the technologies discussed in this post can benefit your business, please contact Consult Hyperion.