[Dave Birch] Throwing out some old papers, I came across a Datamonitor report from 1996. It was projecting the use of online payments through to 2002 and suggested that credit cards would account for about half of the market (a small decrease) whereas digital cash would account for something like a quarter of the market. Now, as we all know, this didn’t happen. But like many other people at the time I thought it would. Why were we so wrong? In my case the reason for the utterly wrong prediction was transaction cost calculations. Like many other people I sat down with a spreadsheet and worked out that it would be a lot cheaper to pay for things on the Internet using e-cash rather than conventional banking infrastructure. For example…
- Conventional means to pay gas bill. Phone up with credit card (3%), debit card (10p) or direct debit (4p).
- New means to pay gas bill. Insert Mondex card in reader. Click to download UKP23.45 from bank account to Mondex card. Go to British Gas web site. Click to transfer UKP23.45 from Mondex card to British Gas. Total transaction cost: zero.
Of course, the cost of issuing Mondex cards and smart card readers is amortised to near-zero here. But it doesn’t matter, since none of it ever happened. It turned out that the transaction costs were irrelevant, because getting people to plug a smart card reader into a PC was a huge barrier on the acceptance side and getting banks to put a Mondex application on a smart card was a huge barrier on the issuing side. Customers, however, rather liked the idea of e-cash, and many would still prefer to pay this way.
Research this week from Prepaid Services (that operates Cash-ticket) found that around a third of shoppers would prefer to use cash rather than a credit card when paying for goods online.
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It has to be easy, and it has to work. But it’s an interesting point to consider with hindsight: why did we make systems such as Danmont, Mondex, VisaCash and use them to compete with cash in the physical world rather than use them in the virtual world where there was no cash? I suppose at the time the world of the Internet was considered a novelty, not central to the world of banking and payments, so the idea of creating an e-cash system specifically for the Internet was considered the province of technology startups rather than banks. That’s not to say that people didn’t try: DigiCash, remember, and there were a variety of other ideas floating around such as Millicent, Hashcash and all the others. At the time, I was on the hardware side of the debate: that is, I couldn’t see how such a system would work in software and assumed that it would be the bank who would provide the tamper-resistant hardware (correct: the chip card) and the interface to the PC. These interfaces never materialised in the mass market, so that they never got a foothold before the falling cost of chips and telecommunications combined with massive economies of scale to give debit cards and unassailable lead at retail POS.
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